Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 16.307734 19.785106 23.630966 28.173780 33.366191 39.088983 45.845416
2025-10-05 11.589305 16.191940 21.822614 29.100181 38.132223 48.846315 62.379618
2025-10-12 8.884266 13.917954 20.584849 29.803774 41.942308 57.092105 77.112032
2025-10-19 7.042811 12.223730 19.577826 30.340211 45.208024 64.523249 90.950583
2025-10-26 5.797405 11.050284 18.982247 31.172835 48.706582 72.246974 105.369155
2025-11-02 4.571528 9.610109 17.714591 30.789020 50.340313 77.418709 116.523337
2025-11-09 3.732924 8.609440 16.925112 30.936985 52.617456 83.459273 128.992076
2025-11-16 3.015531 7.649350 16.028078 30.758469 54.305216 88.653854 140.410261
2025-11-23 2.354966 6.626309 14.845882 29.944222 54.886891 92.191864 149.541333
2025-11-30 2.040014 6.240800 14.731125 30.860880 58.176525 99.795200 164.725342
2025-12-07 1.630351 5.528185 13.884757 30.399902 59.178770 103.961079 174.994726
2025-12-14 1.365436 5.085428 13.490136 30.679323 61.370960 109.984220 188.166846
2025-12-21 0.974767 4.196827 12.071650 29.000977 60.297478 111.121238 194.445669
2025-12-28 0.837014 3.979884 12.072280 30.038455 63.990217 119.991503 212.901921
2026-01-04 0.703393 3.721820 11.930329 30.765583 67.158746 128.128288 230.480102
2026-01-11 0.583599 3.456452 11.719108 31.315771 70.018717 135.850471 247.633649
2026-01-18 0.495962 3.267914 11.661420 32.169042 73.465326 144.651396 266.735480
2026-01-25 0.380275 2.898195 11.058571 31.775740 74.535644 149.490850 279.645674
2026-02-01 0.303441 2.648120 10.724435 31.927366 76.628825 156.114275 295.592406
2026-02-08 0.233599 2.377419 10.269923 31.744432 78.038936 161.587921 309.794304
2026-02-15 0.166643 2.054329 9.576678 30.909959 78.083337 164.654938 320.096894
2026-02-22 0.141505 1.970334 9.618270 31.849378 81.746500 174.211986 341.404246
2026-03-01 0.102499 1.738987 9.115334 31.376973 82.473727 178.543950 354.065751